Monday, October 15, 2012

BCS Rankings: Logic and Reaction

So the first BCS rankings are out and many Duck fans are infuriated about being placed at #3. The general reaction by the media has been simply this.

Relax Duck Fans. Alabama and Florida will play each other and you will be just fine.

The logic for Florida to be ranked ahead of Oregon in the computers is pretty simple and makes sense. Florida has defeated LSU and Texas A&M. Both victories are more impressive than any Oregon has on the books. It is also true that Alabama and Florida would play eachother in the SEC championsip game. So Duck fans, you can breath easy. You do not need to worry about Florida AND Alabama being ahead of you.

However... just behind the ducks is where the real issue lies. 

Both Kansas State and Notre Dame can make compelling arguments. If Kansas State goes undefeated in a Big-12 that has 7 ranked teams (yes 7) they
will have a strong case. If only they had let us beat them in September like we originally planned!

And then there is Notre Dame. Worse than USC and Michigan as far as media bias, and unfortunately it seems they may have a team just good enough to back it up. An undefeated Notre Dame would likely slip past Oregon to the #2 spot. Lets take a quick glance at what needs to happen to stop this.

1. Notre Dame can lose a game.

The best bets for this are Oklahoma or USC. The Trojans don't appear to have the firepower to get the job done so the best hope is for the Sooners, though this causes an issue with boosting K-State's resume.

2. Notre Dame schedule can be weakened.

This would involve the quality opponents on Notre Dame's schedule to tank hard, including USC and Stanford. We would have to root for ASU to emerge in the south and OSU to whip up on Stanford hard. Beating OSU and ASU would provide the signature wins for Oregon instead of USC and Stanford.

So in short. There is no need for panic yet, one of the teams in front of us will fall. Just keep an eye on the teams behind us.

Update 6:48 PM - Here is an ESPN take on the situation.

Next Up: Post and Poll - Rosebowl Victory or BCS Championship defeat? Which is better for the program?

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