Oregon vs Arizona State Preview

This was a game that was almost completely ignored in the off-season. The reasons for this were many:

• New ASU Coaching Staff
• Loss of many notable players such as Brock Osweiler, Vontaze Burfict,  Aaron Pflugrad and Bo Moos
• 6 losses in 7 games to end last season (win was over Colorado)

So it's easy to see how Oregon would initially ignore the Thursday night road test against the Sun Devils. Let's take a deeper look at ASU, specifically on offense, and try to preview the night to come.

ASU is sitting at 5-1 (3-0) and in the lead of the Pac-12 South Division. This is partly because of who they have played so far, but mostly because of a stellar offense. Last week our poll of who the #1 team in the Pac-12 South was gave us the resounding answer ASU. Ted Miller of ESPN even has an ASU player as his #1 choice for offensive AND defensive player of the year, which seems a little bit absurd to me. Statistically the #1 QB in the Pac-12 doesn't look like a Ken doll directing the marching band with a sword. He doesn't wear purple and he isn't from Hawaii. The #1 QB in the conference is Taylor Kelly of ASU. Completing over 71% of his passes through October and 14 Touchdowns to two interceptions on the season. Impressive statistics but against mediocre competition so far.

Do we all remember who had the best offense statistically in the Pac-12 on September 21? That would be the Arizona Wildcats and that statistic changed very abruptly the next day. I expect Oregon to win this game, but the question is in what fashion?

Less points than you would expect

Two specific stats lead me to believe that this may be Oregon's lowest scoring game so far. 

First of all the Sun Devils are 9th in the country for points against, allowing only 14.2 per game. Take out FCS team Northern Arizona and they still allow a salty 15 points per game. 

Second is the fact that Marcus Mariota played the worst game of his young career against Washington State in the only other road game so far (not even a REAL road game) completing under 65% of his passes and throwing two picks and one TD. Mix these two stats together and you have what appears to be a recipe for upset. Sun Devil stadium will be roaring and Mariota will find a much more hostile environment. To be honest I expect him to struggle early as he did in Seattle.

Why Oregon Will Win

The competition so far against ASU has been pretty poor, with the best team they have faced being Cal, who they struggled against. The most telling statistic for me is that Taylor Kelly has been sacked 11 times in 6 games, and they haven't faced a defense as sack-happy as Oregon's. Kiko Alonso is going to have a great night getting to Taylor. Pressuring the QB means forcing bad decisions and our team has shown a penchant for intercepting throws when the pressure is on. ASU scores their points in the air and Oregon has developed two amazing talents at corner back to combat this in Terrance Mitchell and Ifo-Ekpre-Olomu. They will look to make mismatches with their 6'3" tight end and leading receiver Chris Coyle over the middle but the bend-don't-break style of defense we play should keep large gains from happening.

How Oregon Will Win

It sounds simple but we just need to "Run the Ball". Run to set up the short pass. Run to set up the play option. Run to set up the Run. Establishing the run game builds Mariota's confidence, it reduces the likelyhood of him being sacked or throwing an interception, and it puts the ball in the hands of our most skillful assassins players. Don't turn the ball over. Nothing deflates an offense like a few fumbles or interceptions. The run game helps with this but Oregon has been sloppy so far with ball control. DeAnthony Thomas is overdue for a break-out game, and if they focus him too hard as other teams have, Kenjon Barner will wreak havoc. This will be the best defense and the most difficult venue we have experienced so far but that will only slow down the ducks.

Oregon 38 - ASU 21